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ICM converts tournament chips into prize money equity. Learn why losing chips costs more than winning chips is worth.
In a cash game, 1,000 chips = always $10. But in a tournament, the value of 1,000 chips changes depending on the situation.
Final table with 10 players remaining. Total chips: 100,000. Prize pool: $10,000.
| Situation | Chips | ICM Value | Value per Chip |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average stack | 10,000 | ≈$1,000 | $0.10 |
| Double up to 20,000 | 20,000 | ≈$1,400-$1,800 | $0.07-$0.09 |
| Bust to 0 (bubble = no payout) | 0 | $0 | — |
The ICM value of doubling up depends on the payout structure (top-heavy ≈$1,800, flat ≈$1,400). For a typical FT payout, it's ≈$1,500-$1,700.
A profitable all-in in a cash game can be -$EV in a tournament.
Chip EV (cEV): AQo vs Villain's 3-bet range → call or 4-bet all-in is profitable
ICM ($EV): Risking entire 30bb stack on the bubble → busting means $0
Two short stacks remain with 15bb or less → waiting lets you ladder into the money safely
cEV is positive but $EV is negative → fold is correct
| Stack Size | Strategy |
|---|---|
| Chip leader | Aggressive — pressure every opponent |
| Medium stack (20–30bb) | Most conservative — has the most to lose |
| Short stack (< 15bb) | Paradoxically can be more aggressive — less $EV to lose |
| Concept | Description | When to Use |
|---|---|---|
| cEV (Chip EV) | Considers chip value only (same as cash game) | Early in tournaments, far from the money |
| $EV (Dollar EV) | Prize equity adjusted for ICM | Bubble, final table, large pay jumps |
Source: Upswing Poker, GTO Wizard Blog
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