The bubble is where ICM pressure peaks. Learn the optimal strategies for chip leaders, medium stacks, and short stacks to navigate this critical phase.
The phase just before the prize-paying positions. For example, if 15 of 100 players get paid, the direct bubble is exactly when 16 players remain (one more bust = the remaining 15 all get paid). The stage just before that (17–20 left) is the "near-bubble," where ICM pressure ramps up gradually.
The chip leader covers every other stack, so the risk of busting in a single hand is the lowest. Medium and short stacks bust to $0 — that's why they feel the heaviest ICM pressure when the chip leader attacks.
T♦7♣ = a hand you might fold from the BTN under normal circumstances
But on the bubble, Villain (25bb) cannot 3-bet
3-bet shoving → if called, risk of busting → Villain only fights back with premiums
→ Stealing with T7o is extremely profitable
This is the toughest spot on the bubble. You're pressured by the chip leader, and if you bust before the short stacks, you miss the money entirely.
Short stacks have relatively little $EV to lose in ICM terms. They're already at a disadvantage in the payout race.
Source: Upswing Poker, GTO Wizard Blog
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