Bubble Strategy: Surviving the Edge of the Money

The bubble is where ICM pressure peaks. Learn the optimal strategies for chip leaders, medium stacks, and short stacks to navigate this critical phase.

What Is the Bubble?

The phase just before the prize-paying positions. For example, if 15 of 100 players get paid, the direct bubble is exactly when 16 players remain (one more bust = the remaining 15 all get paid). The stage just before that (17–20 left) is the "near-bubble," where ICM pressure ramps up gradually.

Bubble Strategy by Stack Size

Chip Leader: Maximum Aggression

The chip leader covers every other stack, so the risk of busting in a single hand is the lowest. Medium and short stacks bust to $0 — that's why they feel the heaviest ICM pressure when the chip leader attacks.

Widen your opening range to 40–60% (from late position)
Medium stacks can't 3-bet back → nearly every open succeeds
You can call short-stack all-ins with a wide range

Chip Leader's Bubble Steal500/1000 (MTT Bubble)

Hero (BTN) — 80bb (Chip Leader)

preflopPot 1500

Hero raises to 2200

Villain folds

Analysis

T♦7♣ = a hand you might fold from the BTN under normal circumstances

But on the bubble, Villain (25bb) cannot 3-bet

3-bet shoving → if called, risk of busting → Villain only fights back with premiums

→ Stealing with T7o is extremely profitable

Medium Stack (20–30bb): Maximum Caution

This is the toughest spot on the bubble. You're pressured by the chip leader, and if you bust before the short stacks, you miss the money entirely.

Short Stack (< 15bb): Paradoxical Freedom

Short stacks have relatively little $EV to lose in ICM terms. They're already at a disadvantage in the payout race.

You can maintain an all-in range wider than medium stacks
Fold equity still exists (opponents lose chips if they call too)
You must actively accumulate chips before the blinds eat you alive

Bubble Strategy Summary

Source: Upswing Poker, GTO Wizard Blog