ICM increases the value of survival, but it is not magic that makes you fold every premium hand. In multiway all-ins, the truly dangerous mistake may be a weak reshove rather than folding a strong hand.
At a final table, the value of each chip is not constant. Losing 20bb and busting feels far more costly than winning 20bb and becoming the chip leader feels rewarding. That is why many players tighten up much more than usual when big pay jumps are ahead.
But this creates a common misconception: when ICM pressure is high, you can freely fold hands like KK. In reality, that is not the case. ICM narrows calling ranges, but it does not automatically turn hands with overwhelming equity advantages into folds.
In this type of hand, spectators usually focus on the KK fold. It is the most shocking moment visually. But multiway ICM analysis can lead to a different conclusion.
Simplified, the structure looks like this.
From a chipEV perspective, several actions can look reasonable. The short stack jam, TT’s first call, JJ’s reshove, and KK’s call all make sense in chip terms. But when converted to final-table $EV, the ranking changes dramatically.
In chipEV, the key question is, “Is my hand ahead of the opponent’s range?” In ICM $EV, one more question gets added.
Does risking these chips actually increase my prize-money expectation?
The short stack’s all-in can still be justified. Folding does not allow them to climb the payout ladder much, and doubling up has significant value. TT’s first call can also be reasonable when the only opponent is the short stack.
But the JJ reshove is different. With an UTG all-in and an UTG+1 call already in front, putting in the full 25bb has limited fold equity and creates too much bustout risk. In this structure, JJ is much more vulnerable than it appears.
Current pot: 375000 + 1170000 + 1170000 + 3795000 = 6510000
Hero’s call cost: 2895000
Chip-based pot odds: 2895000 / (6510000 + 2895000) ≈ 30.8%
KK has equity well above the required 30.8%, even in a multiway setup that includes JJ, TT, QJs-type hands
Even after applying ICM, calling with KK is about +$47,173 $EV; folding gives up that expectation
JJ looks like a premium hand. But in this spot, a “good hand” and a “hand you can risk everything with” are not the same thing.
One player has already moved all-in, and the next player has called. That call is not some weak random hand. It can easily include medium pairs, strong Broadway hands, and high ace holdings. When you reshove JJ into that, you also create a structure where the players behind can continue only with very strong hands.
In other words, JJ carries three problems at the same time.
It is understandable that KK feels uncomfortable. If you bust, you miss a major pay jump, and if you get cracked, your tournament is over. But strategic decisions should be based on expectation, not the size of the emotion.
KK dominates most reasonable reshove ranges. Against JJ, QQ, AK, AQs, and some TT-type hands, KK is simply too strong. Running into AA is devastating, but in terms of combinations, it is very limited. To fold KK, the opponent’s range would have to be extremely close to exactly AA, and in this action sequence, that is hard to conclude.
The interesting part is TT. Calling against the initial short-stack jam can be reasonable. But once a 25bb reshove comes in behind, the same TT becomes a completely different hand.
At first, there is only one opponent. Afterward, you must face both a strong reshove range and the short-stack all-in. On top of that, your own stack has significant final-table survival value. Calling again with TT here can create a $EV loss of around -$39,635.
Final Table Multiway All-In Decision Checklist
At a final table, ICM is definitely a major brake. Hands like AQs, TT, and JJ get folded much more often than usual. Especially in multiway structures where there has already been an all-in and a call, the value of mid-premium hands drops sharply.
But KK belongs to a different tier of hand. Even when the risk premium rises, hands that are far ahead of the opponent’s overall range still need to put money in. A trap that players who learn ICM often fall into is folding too many hands in the name of “survival.”
This type of hand shows just how complex ICM can be. The most famous surface-level moment is the KK fold, but analytically, the first major problem is the JJ reshove. JJ exposed too much stack to danger under multiway ICM pressure, while KK gave up a hand that was too strong.
The core lesson is simple. ICM reduces strong calls, but it does not eliminate overwhelmingly profitable calls. True advanced final-table play is not about being cautious no matter what; it is about accurately distinguishing the hands that require caution from the hands that must be pushed.
원문: PokerNews Strategy
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