When your opponent checks back the flop, their range is capped. Learn how to lead the turn and take down the pot.
If the IP player doesn't c-bet and checks back the flop, their range is capped — they would have bet with strong hands like AA or KK.
A probe bet is when the OOP player leads out on the turn in this situation.
How often should OOP probe the turn after the opponent checks back the flop?
Approximately 50–65% (heads-up, BTN vs BB)
This is much higher than most players expect. The majority of low-to-mid stakes players don't probe the turn nearly enough.
| Turn Card | Good for Probing? | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Overcards (A, K) | ⚠️ Situational | A can be bad against opponent's ace-high; K is usually good |
| Low cards (2–5) | ✅ Good | Doesn't improve opponent's range — favorable for probing |
| Draw-completing cards | ✅ Good | Your range has more completed draws |
| Board-pairing cards | ⚠️ Caution | Trips probability is similar for both sides |
Villain checks back the flop → no JJ, 88, AJ or similar strong hands (capped)
4♣ = a brick turn that doesn't change the board
Q♣9♣ = gutshot (T) + overcard (Q)
Probe bet pressures Villain's weak range → induces folds
| Situation | Size | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Brick turn | 33–50% | Light pressure is enough against a capped range |
| Draw-completing turn | 66–75% | Represents nuts in your range |
| Scare card | 50–66% | Makes life difficult for opponent's middling hands |
Source: GTO Wizard Blog
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