Turn Probe Bets: How to Attack When the Opponent Checks Back the Flop

What Is a Probe Bet?

If the IP player doesn't c-bet and checks back the flop, their range is capped — they would have bet with strong hands like AA or KK.

A probe bet is when the OOP player leads out on the turn in this situation.

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Solver-Based Probe Frequency

How often should OOP probe the turn after the opponent checks back the flop?

Approximately 50–65% (heads-up, BTN vs BB)

This is much higher than most players expect. The majority of low-to-mid stakes players don't probe the turn nearly enough.

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Good Turn Cards for Probing

Turn Card	Good for Probing?	Reason
Overcards (A, K)	⚠️ Situational	A can be bad against opponent's ace-high; K is usually good
Low cards (2–5)	✅ Good	Doesn't improve opponent's range — favorable for probing
Draw-completing cards	✅ Good	Your range has more completed draws
Board-pairing cards	⚠️ Caution	Trips probability is similar for both sides

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Practical Example

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Probe Bet Sizing

Situation	Size	Reason
Brick turn	33–50%	Light pressure is enough against a capped range
Draw-completing turn	66–75%	Represents nuts in your range
Scare card	50–66%	Makes life difficult for opponent's middling hands

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Source: GTO Wizard Blog