Don't give up just because your draw missed. Learn the math behind river bluffs and how to choose the right hands to bluff with.
Your draw bricked. All you have left is air. When is a bluff profitable here?
| Bet Size | Required Fold Frequency |
|---|---|
| 33% pot | 25% |
| 50% pot | 33% |
| 75% pot | 43% |
| 100% pot | 50% |
| 150% pot | 60% |
8♦7♦ = diamond flush draw missed (river 3♠)
Bluff decision: required fold frequency = 90/215 = 42%
Villain called two streets then checked river → capped range (mostly middle pairs like TT-99)
Drawback: holding 8♦ slightly blocks Villain's missed diamond draws (weak blocker effect)
Strength: no broadway cards → unblocks Villain's weak middle-pair fold range
→ Decent bluff (not a perfect blocker hand, but usable)
To maintain a healthy river betting range, the ratio of value bets to bluffs must be balanced.
| Bet Size | Value : Bluff |
|---|---|
| 50% pot | 3 : 1 (75% value) |
| 75% pot | 2.3 : 1 (70% value) |
| 100% pot | 2 : 1 (67% value) |
| 150% pot | 1.67 : 1 (62.5% value) |
| 200% pot | 1.5 : 1 (60% value) |
River Bluff Hand Selection Criteria
Source: GTO Wizard Blog, Upswing Poker
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