Don't give up just because your draw missed. Learn the math behind river bluffs and how to choose the right hands to bluff with.
The Math Behind River Bluffs
Your draw bricked. All you have left is air. When is a bluff profitable here?
Required Fold Frequency by Bet Size
| Bet Size | Required Fold Frequency |
|---|
| 33% pot | 25% |
| 50% pot | 33% |
| 75% pot | 43% |
| 100% pot | 50% |
| 150% pot | 60% |
Good River Bluffs vs Bad River Bluffs
Good River Bluff: Missed Flush Draw2/5
flopPot 25
Villain checks
Hero bets 15
Villain calls
turnPot 55
Villain checks
Hero bets 35
Villain calls
riverPot 125
Villain checks
Hero bets 90 (72% pot)
Analysis8♦7♦ = diamond flush draw missed (river 3♠)
Bluff decision: required fold frequency = 90/215 = 42%
Villain called two streets then checked river → capped range (mostly middle pairs like TT-99)
Drawback: holding 8♦ slightly blocks Villain's missed diamond draws (weak blocker effect)
Strength: no broadway cards → unblocks Villain's weak middle-pair fold range
→ Decent bluff (not a perfect blocker hand, but usable)
Bluff-to-Value Ratio (GTO Baseline)
To maintain a healthy river betting range, the ratio of value bets to bluffs must be balanced.
| Bet Size | Value : Bluff |
|---|
| 50% pot | 3 : 1 (75% value) |
| 75% pot | 2.3 : 1 (70% value) |
| 100% pot | 2 : 1 (67% value) |
| 150% pot | 1.67 : 1 (62.5% value) |
| 200% pot | 1.5 : 1 (60% value) |
Choosing Hands to Bluff With
River Bluff Hand Selection Criteria
Source: GTO Wizard Blog, Upswing Poker
